Will Arizona pass the Anti-Trans Prop 318 ballot measure in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62%
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Updated 22 hours ago
StaleSep 6, 26, 11:55 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
On November 3, Arizona will vote on the Arizona Proposition 318, Require Schools and Athletic Associations to Restrict Use of Restrooms, Locker Rooms, and Other Private Spaces Based on Sex Measure
- prohibit schools and athletic associations from authorizing a student, athlete, employee, or other individual from using a restroom, locker room, shower room, or other private space that is not designated for their sex - with sex defined as the "biological status as male or female as recorded at birth on the individual's original birth certificate;"- and remove the provision allowing any student, including females, to participate in any interscholastic or intramural athletic team or sport designated for males
- Resolves yes if the measure passes on the ballot, not if it goes into effect.
