Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 12:06 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 11:41 AM UTC
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Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered.
- These include but are not limited to: - Kicking out USA military personnel from local bases - Temporarily restricting US operations in said bases - Restricting airspace access to the USA - Agreeing to only sell oil in Yuan for the duration of the conflict
- The deal must: 1) Offer a concrete non-aggression guarantee by Iran 2) Sideline the USA* 3) Be publicly acknowledged by both sides
- *A deal between the USA and Iran that happens to help conditions for all the gulf-states will not be considered.
- (That said, I can see a world where Bahrain and Iran strike a deal and Trump insists it's his deal cause he's the dealmaker...
- I would consider this still sidelines the USA if it clearly favours Bahrain only.)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks? resolve?
- Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered.