Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 20, 25, 3:25 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an American astronaut walks on the Moon between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2029.
- Verification will be based on official NASA announcements and reputable news sources.
- NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon.
- Artemis III, the mission intended to achieve this, has faced multiple delays.
- As of December 2024, NASA announced a postponement of Artemis III to mid-2027 due to technical challenges, including heat shield issues on the Orion capsule.
