Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
One-OffScienceHealth & MedicineWeather2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.4%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 5, 25, 11:57 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria:
- A "YES" outcome requires that a credible source (e.g. a government agency such as the USDA-APHIS) confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the contiguous United States has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), before January 1st 2027 at 00:00 GMT.
- Infections in humans do not count.
- Similarly, infections in pets, livestock, or otherwise captive or confined animals do not count.
- However, infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) will count.
- An example of what would qualify as a "YES" if it happened again, is the outbreak among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016.
