Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.9%
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12
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 29, 23, 2:14 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will ACE recommend any orgs doing direct (non-research) interventions in wild animal suffering by 2030?
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KalshiRules
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- See this EA Forum tag for a definition of "Wild animal welfare" as a cause area.
- For the purposes of this question, fishing-related interventions are considered farmed-animal welfare.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like farmed-invertebrate welfare and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!