Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
One-OffHealth & MedicineSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.6%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 31, 23, 6:06 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
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To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- By "mental-health / subjective-wellbeing", I mean charities like Kaya Guides, Vida Plena, Canopie, and Strongminds.
- In general, any developing-world charitable intervention that is primarily motivated by a Happier-Lives-Institute-style focus on subjective wellbeing surveys (rather than Givewell-style measures of increased lifespan or income) would count.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like alcohol/tobacco taxation and farmed-invertebrate welfare!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
