What are the current odds for When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America??

Manifold Markets prices 2050 or later at 17.5% as of October 29, 2026.

When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

2050 or later 17.5%

Leader of 10 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Oct 12, 23, 3:05 PM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.

This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.
I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.
Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world
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