Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 6, 25, 9:44 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2029, an official declaration of independence from the United States is made by the government of any U.S. state.
- The declaration must explicitly state the state's intent to secede from the Union or anyway don't recognize the authority of the president of the United States.
- The resolution will be based on credible news reports from reputable sources such as The New York Times, Reuters, or The Associated Press.
- If no such declaration is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies they are aiming for an effective attempt for independence, distinguishing this from what they consider merely vague intent.