Current community forecast
No 93.2%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 29, 26, 10:33 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiSOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
Manifold MarketsWhich party's candidate will become US President after the election in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any current or former US President or member of the Cabinet identify as a furry by 2039?
Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Alberta become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRules
Potential Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
- I suppose they don't have to be strictly a "former" pornstar.
- They could still be active, but they had to have also done the work prior to becoming President.
- Though I admit that'd be quite odd and much less expected than someone who had retired from that work.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? resolve?
- Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Potential Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)