Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?
One-OffPoliticsRegulationCrypto2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58%
Forecasters
58
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 26, 22, 9:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.
- (This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%".
- Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)
