Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
One-OffCryptoCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.5%
Forecasters
159
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Nov 14, 22, 3:10 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 individual recipients of an FTX-originating grant that went through a legal charity along the way, more than 5% of the money received; including but not limited to FTX Foundation, FTX Philanthropy, FTX Future Fund, "North Dimension" under Alameda, the FTX Future Fund regranting program, etcetera.
- (This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%"; i.e., to measure the probability of a scenario that would pose strong danger to a lot of individual people who did work under FTX grants.
- Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)
- Added: Per original title, "individual" means "individual human worker".
