Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIn hiding from US/Israeli assassination 51.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 10, 26, 3:18 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?
Manifold MarketsTrump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
LimitlessMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketRules
Or given any televised statements.
- I'll resolve it to whatever the NYT attributes the absence to, but I'll only start checking 3 months after his first public appearance, as allowance for fog of war.
- I may resolve to prob.
- Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting sampled, not necessarily equal weight
- December 31 close date is a placeholder; creator will attempt to resolve ~3 months after Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public??
- Manifold Markets prices In hiding from US/Israeli assassination at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? resolve?
- Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Or given any televised statements.