Who will win the U.S. House seat for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District in November 2026?
7.9 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBrad Finstad 65.3%-7.9ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-10.7 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 5, 25, 8:52 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Who will win the U.S. House seat for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 general election?
- Outcomes: • the named outcome (R – incumbent) • the named outcome (DFL – challenger) • the named outcome (Independent challenger) • Other (for any certified write-in or late-filing candidate)
- Definition of winner: The candidate who receives the most votes in the official certified results of the November 3, 2026 general election for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District.
- Source of truth: Official results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (or, if unavailable, Associated Press or other widely recognized election authorities).
- Time: Resolution will occur after certification, expected December 2026.
- Edge cases: • If the election is postponed, the market will remain open until certification. • If recounts occur, the market will resolve according to the final certified outcome. • If a candidate withdraws or is disqualified before the election, their option will still be valid but will resolve “NO” if they do not win. • If no resolution is possible (e.g., court-ordered rerun without certification), the market may resolve N/A, but every effort will be made to resolve to an actual outcome.
