Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastAdam Hamilton (d) 60%+7.2ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+26.7 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 26, 12:06 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Polls indicate a possible upset, but if we’ve learned anything in the last two elections… polls are often wrong.
- Kansas hadn’t elected a Democrat senator since 1932.
- If the election is clearly called by at least 2 major news organizations the question will settle.
- If the result is in doubt it will resolve by the end of the year when it does get called or, if needed with a best estimate based on Kalshi odds
