Which party will win the Kentucky Senate Seat in 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastRepublican Party 95%+1.0pt
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 12:19 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Susan Collins win re-election to Maine's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will hold Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?
KalshiKentucky Senate Election Winner
PolymarketDemocratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
KalshiRules
Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt58.8%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva40.2%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $153.3M
- 24h Vol
- $967.8K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep+0.3pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $223.1M
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-5.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+7.0pt43.6%
- Total Vol
- $33.2M
- 24h Vol
- $600.7K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.9pt91%
- Republican Party+0.3pt9%
- Total Vol
- $34.5M
- 24h Vol
- $564.5K
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Next French Presidential Election
- Ohio Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Kansas Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the Kentucky Senate Seat in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Republican Party at 95% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the Kentucky Senate Seat in 2026? resolve?
- Which party will win the Kentucky Senate Seat in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which party will win the Kentucky Senate Seat in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.
- Where else is Which party will win the Kentucky Senate Seat in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on PredictIt.