Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 10:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastRepublican Party 91.3%-0.9pt
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 12:19 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democratic Party9%
Compare venues· Republican Party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 91% | — | — | — | 9 days ago | |
 PredictIt95% match · verified | — | 94% | — | — | — | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kentucky?
1y
94%
9%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2Jul 84d of dataJul 18
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Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.