Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Flávio Bolsonaro 17.2%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 24, 1:37 AM UTCJan 6, 31, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?
KalshiWho will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PredictItBrazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
Manifold MarketsBrazilian presidential election: Renan Santos vote percent (1st Round)
KalshiRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2030 Brazilian presidential election.
- This market's closing date, currently 6 January 2031, may be pushed back if needed to ensure that it can stay open until the results are clear.
- If no presidential election is held in Brazil in 2030, this market shall resolve to "the named outcome".
- I will not bet on this market.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 17% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? resolve?
- Who will win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on January 6, 2031.
- How is Who will win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2030 Brazilian presidential election.