Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGavin Newsom 52.1%Leader of 53 outcomes
Forecasters
78
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 22, 6:57 PM UTCNov 30, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will JD Vance be the 48th (next) President?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the 48th president of the United States?
Manifold MarketsWill the next elected President of the USA serve the full term?
Manifold Markets2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the name of the person, who becomes the 48th President of the United States, whether as the result of the 2028 elections or otherwise (ie.
- Vice President takes the chair).
- Please note, that the question asks about the 48th POTUS.
- If, for example, the named outcome wins the 2024 elections (47th President) and gets reelected, this market will resolve only after the 48th POTUS takes office. -------------------------
- Jan 6, 9:05pm: Who will become the 48th President of the USA? → Who will become the 48th (the next next) President of the USA?
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the 48th President of the USA??
- Manifold Markets prices Gavin Newsom at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the 48th President of the USA? resolve?
- Who will be the 48th President of the USA? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2028.
- How is Who will be the 48th President of the USA? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the name of the person, who becomes the 48th President of the United States, whether as the result of the 2028 elections or otherwise (ie.