Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 26, 6:46 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the 48th president of the United States?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the 48th President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill JD Vance win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWhat will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
KalshiRules
Resolves yes if he's sworn in for any reason.
- Trump is currently the 47th.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will JD Vance be the 48th (next) President??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will JD Vance be the 48th (next) President? resolve?
- Will JD Vance be the 48th (next) President? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will JD Vance be the 48th (next) President? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if he's sworn in for any reason.