Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 74.8%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 3, 24, 2:45 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketWill any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?
KalshiWill a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSupreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027?
Manifold MarketsAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice in 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next person appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next person appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA? resolve?
- Who will be the next person appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.