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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Texas 100%Leader of 29 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 25, 25, 4:22 PM UTCNov 29, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
"Mid-decade redistricting" refers here to any change in US House district boundaries not conducted as part of the regular once-a-decade redistricting process that occurred in 2020.
- This includes court-mandated redistricting and other changes to district borders, not exclusively partisan gerrymandering.
- This does not include any mid-decade redistricting that has already taken place as of 7/25/25.
- This only includes redistricting efforts that are completed prior to the 2030 once-a-decade redistricting process.
- Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A state will only count as having enacted mid-decade redistricting if an election is actually conducted under the new maps.
- The creator will refrain from resolving any states until after the midterms to ensure this criterion is met.