Which state will host the first Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSouth Carolina 93.2%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 26, 4:56 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
KalshiWhich city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
KalshiWill New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?
KalshiConditional on this candidate winning the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, will they win the general election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary?
Manifold MarketsIf the first state to hold a Democratic presidential primary is not South Carolina, who will the nominee be?
Manifold MarketsRules
The first state to host a Democratic primary is considered unusually influential due to setting the initial hype for the rest of the primary.
- In 2020, the first primary was the Iowa caucus which was somewhat bungled in a way amplified by how close Buttigieg and Sanders were, and lead to the resignation Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price; in 2024, the first official primary was in the named outcome.
- Currently, several states are vying for the position of first:
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/democrats-2028-presidential-primary-calendar-dnc-early-voting-rcna256634
- If multiple states have the first primary on the same day, this will resolve as % weighted by the number of delegates that they have in the DNC for those states.
- If a primary is unofficial and does not send delegates to the DNC, as the named outcome dems attempted in 2024, then this does not cause the question to resolve.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which state will host the first Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets prices South Carolina at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which state will host the first Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 election? resolve?
- Which state will host the first Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 election? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Which state will host the first Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The first state to host a Democratic primary is considered unusually influential due to setting the initial hype for the rest of the primary.