Which state will host the first Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSouth Carolina 93.2%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 26, 4:56 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
The first state to host a Democratic primary is considered unusually influential due to setting the initial hype for the rest of the primary.
- In 2020, the first primary was the Iowa caucus which was somewhat bungled in a way amplified by how close Buttigieg and Sanders were, and lead to the resignation Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price; in 2024, the first official primary was in the named outcome.
- Currently, several states are vying for the position of first:
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/democrats-2028-presidential-primary-calendar-dnc-early-voting-rcna256634
- If multiple states have the first primary on the same day, this will resolve as % weighted by the number of delegates that they have in the DNC for those states.
- If a primary is unofficial and does not send delegates to the DNC, as the named outcome dems attempted in 2024, then this does not cause the question to resolve.
