Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
New Hampshire · —
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Stored price
New Hampshire 89%Leader of 4 outcomes
New Hampshire 89%Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$200
Open interest
$40.5K
High open interestBid / Ask
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New HampshireSpread
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Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 5:07 PM UTCApr 1, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · New Hampshire
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which state will host the first Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?
KalshiWho will win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary?
Manifold MarketsConditional on this candidate winning the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, will they win the general election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire?
PredictItRules
If New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of tied states. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Rules for each outcome
- New Hampshire
- If New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Iowa
- If Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- South Carolina
- If South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Nevada
- If Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
