When will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US and Trump replace the current Air Force One?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever or 2029 and After 43.6%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 19, 25, 5:21 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US be transferred to the Trump presidential library (or similar) by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?
KalshiWill a major terrorist attack with over 100 casualties be committed against the US during Trump's current term?
Manifold MarketsWill Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsUConn vs Air Force
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES when the Air Force has completed upgrades to the Qatari Boeing 747-8 and Trump uses it as Air Force One.
- Resolution requires documented evidence of Trump boarding and flying on the aircraft in an official presidential capacity.
- The market resolves NO if Trump's presidency ends before the plane is operational, or if the plane is permanently decommissioned or transferred without being used by Trump.
- The Trump administration accepted a $400 million luxury Boeing 747 from Qatar, described as a "flying palace".
- Two new Boeing 747-8 planes are being customized to become the next generation of Air Force One under a $3.9 billion deal announced during Trump's first term, but the project has been marred by setbacks and the aircraft aren't expected for several more years.
