When will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US and Trump replace the current Air Force One?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever or 2029 and After 48.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 19, 25, 5:21 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES when the Air Force has completed upgrades to the Qatari Boeing 747-8 and Trump uses it as Air Force One.
- Resolution requires documented evidence of Trump boarding and flying on the aircraft in an official presidential capacity.
- The market resolves NO if Trump's presidency ends before the plane is operational, or if the plane is permanently decommissioned or transferred without being used by Trump.
- The Trump administration accepted a $400 million luxury Boeing 747 from Qatar, described as a "flying palace".
- Two new Boeing 747-8 planes are being customized to become the next generation of Air Force One under a $3.9 billion deal announced during Trump's first term, but the project has been marred by setbacks and the aircraft aren't expected for several more years.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US and Trump replace the current Air Force One??
- Manifold Markets prices Never or 2029 and After at 49% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US and Trump replace the current Air Force One? resolve?
- When will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US and Trump replace the current Air Force One? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is When will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US and Trump replace the current Air Force One? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria