What will be the next capital city to be occupied by a foreign military?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastChina4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYemen: Sana’a 55.1%Leader of 35 outcomes
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48
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 8, 22, 12:34 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
What will be the next capital city of a UN recognized sovereign state to be controlled by a foreign military? Partially unrecognized states (currently China, Taiwan, Palestine, Israel, and Morocco) do count for purposes of this market.
- Full control for at least 48 hours and confirmed by multiple news sources.
- Effective destruction without military occupation (e.g., nuclear strike) will default to defining the new base of governmental organization as being the new 'capital', although this will not allow for any highly distributed or overseas rule (à la Free French Africa), and minimal occupation of destroyed capitals will count.