What are the current odds for Foreign military intervention in Namibia in the next ten years??

Manifold Markets prices No at 82.9% as of October 26, 2026.

Foreign military intervention in Namibia in the next ten years?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 82.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jan 8, 23, 6:43 PM UTCJan 8, 33, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves to YES if, according to a credible variety of international news media, any foreign military intervenes in Namibia in the next ten years.

"Intervention" could be declaration of war, invasion, bombing, etc. I am asking this question because oil was recently discovered in Namibia; a cynic might feel that the discovery of oil makes military action more likely (whether its stated purpose is related to oil or not).
Resolution of the market does not care what is the purpose of the intervention, only whether an intervention occurs or not.