Current community forecast
Democratic Party 64.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 26, 11:26 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be on the winning U.S. presidential ticket (President + VP) in 2028?
Manifold Markets“Which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election as the Democratic nominee?”
Manifold MarketsWill a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
PolymarketWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Cape Verde election?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The 2028 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028.
- The market resolves to whichever party the winning candidate is affiliated with at the time of their victory.
- Resolution will be determined by the official Electoral College results and the candidate's party affiliation as recorded by the Federal Election Commission and major news outlets.
- The "Other" category should only resolve yes if a candidate from a party other than Democratic, Republican, or Independent wins the presidency.
- I WILL bet in this market.
