Current community forecast
No Democrat wins 35%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 25, 7:29 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be on the winning U.S. presidential ticket (President + VP) in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election?
Manifold Markets2028 US Presidential Election: Winning Party
Robinhood (Rothera)Presidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves to the Democratic nominee who wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- If the Democratic nominee does not win the election, the market resolves to “the named outcome.”
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for “Which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election as the Democratic nominee?”?
- Manifold Markets prices No Democrat wins at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does “Which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election as the Democratic nominee?” resolve?
- “Which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election as the Democratic nominee?” is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is “Which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election as the Democratic nominee?” settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to the Democratic nominee who wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election.