Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsLatin AmericaCrime & Justice3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 5, 26, 1:39 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro dies while in the custody of the United States government (e.g., in a federal detention center, prison, or during transport) on or before April 5, 2027.
- The market will resolve to "No" if he is still alive upon his release from U.S. custody or if he remains alive in custody after that date.
- Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major international and U.S. news outlets (e.g., The Associated Press, Reuters, BBC, The New York Times).
- Official statements from the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or the U.S. Department of Justice will be considered primary evidence.
- Nicolás Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, is currently being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) in Brooklyn, New York.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? resolve?
- Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria