US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.2%
Forecasters
80
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 25, 1:45 AM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsHow many justices will be appointed to the Supreme Court during the current presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurRules
Resolves yes if the executive branch instructs (or endorses) the use of actual bullets to deal with protests or unrest that are politically motivated, and it occurs.
- https://www.axios.com/2022/05/02/mark-esper-book-trump-protesters
- This is an example of maybe a prelude to that.
- Does not resolve yes if the use of live fire is a rogue officer and not a result of executive branch instructions.
- Does not resolve yes if it's just a shootout with a criminal that happens to be in the same area.
- Does not resolve yes if they are instructed to but don't.
