Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJoe Biden 40%
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 24, 1:00 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
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FutuurRules
Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old.
- This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes.
- The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already.
- What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
- This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first.
