Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 82.9%
Forecasters
50
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleNov 7, 24, 1:55 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Only resolves true if natural causes/old age prior to 1/20/2029.
- Outside intentional influence resolves as false.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age. resolve?
- Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age. is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Only resolves true if natural causes/old age prior to 1/20/2029.