Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 25, 11:59 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
Manifold MarketsWill Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsHow many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
KalshiHow many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
KalshiRules
Resolves Yes if any of:
- Hillary Clinton
- Bill Clinton
- Kamala Harris
- Barack Obama
- Michelle Obama
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029? resolve?
- Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if any of: