Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028
Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsMiddle EastEuropePolitics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92.7%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 26, 4:25 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, any of the following events occur representing a loss of legislative or "parliamentary" support for U.S. President Donald Trump:
- Loss of Republican Majority in the U.S. Congress: The Republican Party loses majority control of either the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate (for example, as a result of the November 2026 midterm elections, or due to party defections/vacancies), resulting in a divided government.
- This will be verified via official election outcomes published by Ballotpedia or major news outlets.
- Official Rejection of Support by a Major Foreign Parliament: A major allied legislative body (such as the European Parliament or the UK House of Commons) passes a formal resolution or vote that explicitly halts cooperation on a major bilateral initiative or treaty with the Trump administration (such as suspending the EU-US tariff agreement).
- This will be verified via official parliamentary records.
