KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 3:44 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
67.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 10:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?
KalshiWhen will Canada lower tariffs on the US?
KalshiWill the Bank of Canada raise the rate 25bps at the October 28, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExWill Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
KalshiRules
If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Prime Minister of Canada
- Only reporting from the Prime Minister of Canada qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The publication must expressly commit Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods.
- It must be an official speech, statement, or press release issued personally or in the prime minister's name.
- A specified future effective date qualifies.
Open markets
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.3K
- 24h Vol
- $10.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt28%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+13.0pt91%
- No9%
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
KALSHIWhat will Kroger say during their next earnings call?
- Dividend+2.0pt93%
- Giant Eagle+11.0pt92%
- AI85%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Above 175-1.0pt90%
- Above 20047%
- Above 2259%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Canada raise tariffs on the US??
- Kalshi prices Before Oct 1, 2026 at 0% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will Canada raise tariffs on the US? resolve?
- When will Canada raise tariffs on the US? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will Canada raise tariffs on the US? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.