KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2027 17.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2027 17.5%Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$170.6
Open interest
$4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
—
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 10:00 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2027
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a PS5 cost >%10 more to US consumers as a result of tariffs before the 2026 US midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Bank of Canada raise the rate 25bps at the December 9, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExWill Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?
Manifold Markets50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect?
KalshiUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
PolymarketRules
If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Prime Minister of Canada
- Only reporting from the Prime Minister of Canada qualifies for the purposes of this market. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The publication must expressly commit Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods. It must be an official speech, statement, or press release issued personally or in the prime minister's name. A specified future effective date qualifies. Minister- or agency-only announcements, negotiating objectives, noncommittal statements of intent that do not expressly commit Canada, general aspirations, preliminary discussions, threats, conditional proposals, and the automatic activation or expiry of a previously announced measure do NOT qualify. A new decision to reimpose a previously removed tariff or increase an existing tariff qualifies. Reports merely referencing publications before Issuance do NOT qualify unless they explicitly reaffirm a qualifying new decision made after Issuance.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.