Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?
QuarterlyPolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.2%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 21, 26, 4:29 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?
KalshiWill the Bank of Canada raise the rate 25bps at the December 9, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExWill the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiWho will control the House?
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if, by 11:59 pm ET on December 31, 2026, the Government of Canada publicly releases an official immigration levels plan, ministerial statement, or equivalent IRCC policy document that sets the target number of new international-student arrivals for calendar year 2027 above 150,000.
- This market resolves NO if, by that time, no such official federal document sets the 2027 target above 150,000.
- For this market:
- Only federal government announcements count.
- Draft leaks, media reports, stakeholder rumours, and provincial requests do not count unless later confirmed in an official federal document by the deadline.
- A mere administrative relaxation that does not increase the 2027 target above 150,000 does not count as YES.
