Current community forecast
No 98.5%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 22, 10:16 PM UTCJan 2, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
- Meta comment: This is another "what is the risk free interest rate" market, but testing a very long time period.
- Based on my calculations about loans, I think that there's still a big difference in opportunity cost between a 1-month investment and a 1-year investment, but there actually seems to be only a tiny difference in opportunity cost between a 1-year investment and a 10-year investment.
- (Assuming it's a small part of your portfolio so it doesn't contribute much to the loan cap).
- This is because the vast majority of your opportunity cost is incurred in the first few months - with 2% of your investment being loaned back to you every day, by 365 days less than 0.01% of your investment is still locked up in the market.
- There's another interesting consideration which is how much the long time frame affects questions like whether you and/or Manifold will still be around, etc. (Note that even if I am hit by a bus, Manifold admins have stated and shown that they usually will resolve popular markets eventually if the author is not responsive.)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) resolve?
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2050.
- How is This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
