Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 7:15 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleJul 16, 26, 5:59 AMAug 13, 26, 7:15 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States military conducts at least one kinetic strike (including airstrikes, drone strikes, missile strikes, or naval/artillery bombardment) within the internationally recognized territorial borders of Iran (including its mainland and sovereign islands) at any point from August 1, 2026, to August 31, 2026, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Details:
- Target Location: Strikes must hit targets physically located within Iran's sovereign territory.
- Cyberattacks, kinetic strikes against Iranian-aligned proxy forces outside of Iran (e.g., in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen), or maritime blockades/ship disabling in international waters do not count unless accompanied by kinetic strikes on Iranian territory.
