Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 4:44 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a member of the Straw Hat crew die before they find the One Piece?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another new member of the Straw Hat Pirates before the end of One Piece?
Manifold MarketsWill Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
In the last few years, especially 2025, several nations experienced political upheaval with similar characteristics: youth-led, street-level/grassroots, social-media coordinated, occurring in peripheral nations, and primarily driven by governmental corruption and lack of basic social services rather than specific ideological motives.
- Some protestors identified themselves as being part of a global movement, despite most protests focusing on local concerns, adopting the Straw Hat from One Piece as a symbol.
- Examples include Madagascar, Nepal, Morocco, Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and potentially Kenya and Sri Lanka.
- Resolves YES if and only if the Associated Press, Reuters, or a consensus of credible media reports on one of the following during 2026:
- Governmental overthrow or change in government/ruling coalition/party due to Straw Hat mass protests
- Coup or self-coup orchestrated in response to Straw Hat mass protests
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Straw Hat protests continue in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Straw Hat protests continue in 2026 resolve?
- Straw Hat protests continue in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Straw Hat protests continue in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In the last few years, especially 2025, several nations experienced political upheaval with similar characteristics: youth-led, street-level/grassroots, social-media coordinated, occurring in peripheral nations, and primarily driven by governmental corruption and lack of basic social services rather than specific ideological motives.