Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.5%
Forecasters
233
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 24, 11:44 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be another new member of the Straw Hat Pirates before the end of One Piece?
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Manifold MarketsPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
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KalshiRules
Good waiting, friends 🥂
- (28 Feb ‘24 Edit for clarification)
- This question will resolve as “YES” if any member of the Straw Hat Pirates (only those on Luffy’s direct crew, not the Grand Fleet) die before one or more members look at the One Piece with their eyes.
- Will resolve as “NO” otherwise.
- I do not answer my own questions.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a member of the Straw Hat crew die before they find the One Piece??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a member of the Straw Hat crew die before they find the One Piece? resolve?
- Will a member of the Straw Hat crew die before they find the One Piece? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is Will a member of the Straw Hat crew die before they find the One Piece? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Good waiting, friends 🥂