Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastObserving a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel 47%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 23, 26, 9:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and use my own judgment in the event of ambiguity.
- I may resolve to % if I feel it's appropriate.
- I won't bet.
- Specific rules:
- the named outcome
- By this I mean "strictly more friendly", in the sense that a leader who is roughly "similar" resolves no.