Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastObserving a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel 59.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 23, 26, 9:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?
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Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and use my own judgment in the event of ambiguity.
- I may resolve to % if I feel it's appropriate.
- I won't bet.
- Specific rules:
- the named outcome
- By this I mean "strictly more friendly", in the sense that a leader who is roughly "similar" resolves no.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices Observing a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027 resolve?
- State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is State of Iran on Jan 1st 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and use my own judgment in the event of ambiguity.