Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 7:22 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 64.8%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 16, 25, 5:34 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by which date?
PolymarketWhich party wins 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
KalshiWill John Fetterman Leave the Democratic Party Before the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Fetterman leave the Democratic Party by June 30?
PredictItWill Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator John Fetterman officially changes his party affiliation from the Democratic Party to any other party or to Independent before the conclusion of the 2028 United States presidential election.
- The change must be publicly announced and reflected in official records, such as the U.S. Senate's party affiliation listings.
- If no such change occurs by the date of the 2028 election, the market will resolve to "No."
- Senator John Fetterman, representing Pennsylvania, has been a member of the Democratic Party throughout his political career.
- In early 2025, speculation arose regarding a potential party switch due to his collaborations with Republican figures and support for certain policies aligned with the GOP.