Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.5%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
May 16, 25, 5:34 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by which date?
PolymarketWhich party wins 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
KalshiWill John Fetterman Leave the Democratic Party Before the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Fetterman leave the Democratic Party by Sept. 30?
PredictItWill Fetterman leave the Democratic Party by June 30?
PredictItRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator John Fetterman officially changes his party affiliation from the Democratic Party to any other party or to Independent before the conclusion of the 2028 United States presidential election.
- The change must be publicly announced and reflected in official records, such as the U.S. Senate's party affiliation listings.
- If no such change occurs by the date of the 2028 election, the market will resolve to "No."
- Senator John Fetterman, representing Pennsylvania, has been a member of the Democratic Party throughout his political career.
- In early 2025, speculation arose regarding a potential party switch due to his collaborations with Republican figures and support for certain policies aligned with the GOP.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election? resolve?
- Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria