KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 44%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 44%Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$245.4
Open interest
$35.7K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 6, 26, 11:00 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will John Fetterman Leave the Democratic Party Before the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Fetterman leave the Democratic Party by June 30?
PredictItJohn Fetterman out by which date?
PolymarketWill John Fetterman endorse a Republican before election day?
Manifold MarketsWho will John Fetterman endorse or suggest voting for in the Maine senate election?
Manifold MarketsWhat will John Fetterman’s official party affiliation and caucus situation be on 1 July 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Fox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforABCThe InformationCBSThe New York TimesThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersthe Associated PressPoliticoOffice of the Clerk of the U.S. House of RepresentativesBloomberg NewsNBCthe Secretary of the Senate
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Aug 1, 2027
- If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 3, 2026
- If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.