Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No nuke Ukraine, No coup success 93%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
60
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 23, 10:29 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.4%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
PolymarketConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsIran Nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketRules
A combination of https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine and https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p using their resolution criteria.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p)
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Russia coup-nuke combination market?
- Manifold Markets prices No nuke Ukraine, No coup success at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Russia coup-nuke combination market resolve?
- Russia coup-nuke combination market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Russia coup-nuke combination market settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A combination of https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine and https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p using their resolution criteria.