Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 17, 25, 1:40 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies
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Manifold MarketsZelenskyy dies by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Vladimir Putin dies by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible international news sources confirming his death, such as major news agencies (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.).
- The market resolves NO if Putin remains alive through the end of 2026.
- Putin turned 73 in October 2025.
- For approximately 20 years, multiple sources have regularly reported that Putin is weeks or months away from death or medical incapacity, though U.S. intelligence officials have stated there is no evidence that Putin is seriously ill.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Putin dies by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Putin dies by end of 2026? resolve?
- Putin dies by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Putin dies by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria