Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies
One-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.3%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 26, 4:43 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, between now and December 31, 2026, the Assembly of Experts is hit by a US or Israeli attack and at least one cleric member dies as a result.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming both the attack on the Assembly and at least one confirmed death of a member.
- The market resolves NO if no such attack occurs by the deadline, or if an attack occurs but no members are killed.
- The Assembly of Experts is the deliberative body empowered to appoint the Supreme Leader of Iran.
- The Assembly consists entirely of Shiite clerics who are popularly elected every eight years and whose candidacies are approved by the Guardian Council.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies resolve?
- Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria