Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 3, 25, 5:16 PM UTCJul 4, 30, 5:03 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 3, 2025, and July 3, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war, resulting in at least one fatality.
- The detonation must be confirmed by credible sources such as major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) or official government statements.
- Tests, accidents, or non-fatal incidents will not count towards resolution.
- The risk of nuclear conflict has been a subject of extensive analysis.
- Estimates vary, but some experts suggest a 1% annual probability of nuclear war, accumulating to a significant risk over multiple years.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Nuclear war in next 5 years??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Nuclear war in next 5 years? resolve?
- Nuclear war in next 5 years? is scheduled to resolve on July 4, 2030.
- How is Nuclear war in next 5 years? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria