Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 17, 26, 1:14 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?
Manifold MarketsWill Javier Milei serve a full term as the President of Argentina?
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Manifold MarketsWill Karina Milei leave the office of Argentina’s Secretary General of the Presidency in 2026?
FutuurTrump out as President before 2027?
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? [Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? [Polymarket] resolve?
- Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? [Polymarket] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? [Polymarket] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? [Polymarket] listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.