What are the current odds for Maduro out of custody by EOY 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of October 5, 2026.

When does Maduro out of custody by EOY 2026? resolve?

Maduro out of custody by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 94%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Jan 3, 26, 7:24 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 7:23 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.