Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 6:04 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:21 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketTrump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.
- Iranian sources have confirmed that Mojtaba was in the compound and was injured when it was struck by Israel, possibly seriously enough that he required hospitalization (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/mojtaba-khamenei-was-hurt-in-strike-that-killed-his-father-irans-cyprus-ambassador-confirms).
- As far as I am aware no one else is known to have survived the strike, and it seems unlikely Israel would strike their highest priority target in a way that would be likely to leave survivors somewhere on the compound.
- Since his election as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has not been seen or given any statements.
- The explanation that has been given is that he is in hiding, which is reasonable enough.
- However one might expect that he would make some kind of statement and appearance to rally his supporters if he was in any condition to do so, even if pre-recorded to avoid giving away clues to his location.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? resolve?
- Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.