Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 11, 26, 6:04 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:21 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.
- Iranian sources have confirmed that Mojtaba was in the compound and was injured when it was struck by Israel, possibly seriously enough that he required hospitalization (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/mojtaba-khamenei-was-hurt-in-strike-that-killed-his-father-irans-cyprus-ambassador-confirms).
- As far as I am aware no one else is known to have survived the strike, and it seems unlikely Israel would strike their highest priority target in a way that would be likely to leave survivors somewhere on the compound.
- Since his election as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has not been seen or given any statements.
- The explanation that has been given is that he is in hiding, which is reasonable enough.
- However one might expect that he would make some kind of statement and appearance to rally his supporters if he was in any condition to do so, even if pre-recorded to avoid giving away clues to his location.
