Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever 71.8%Leader of 32 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 22, 10:05 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsIf China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.
- *The date that is reported within the articles rather than the date of publication of the articles, will be considered the invasion date.
Open markets
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+5 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.0pt68%
- September 11-9.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 3012.1%
+17 more outcomes
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- No+4.0pt80.2%
- Yes-4.0pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what month will China invade Taiwan??
- Manifold Markets prices Never at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does In what month will China invade Taiwan? resolve?
- In what month will China invade Taiwan? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is In what month will China invade Taiwan? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.