Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever 71.8%Leader of 32 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 22, 10:05 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.
- *The date that is reported within the articles rather than the date of publication of the articles, will be considered the invasion date.